Climate change
Press Release: South Africa’s Emissions Offer
Press Release: South Africa’s Emissions Offer
Earthlife Africa Jhb
10th of Dec. 2009
Early this week, the South African Government put out what was hailed as a bold step forwards in the global climate change negotiations. Vital questions concerning the details of the Government’s offer have yet to be answered. If resolved, it could be that South Africa has taken a bold step.
The SA Government stated (6/12/09), “South Africa will undertake mitigation actions which will result in a deviation below the current emissions baseline of around 34% by 2020 and by around 42% by 2025. This level of effort enables South Africa’s emissions to peak between 2020 and 2025, plateau for approximately a decade and decline in absolute terms thereafter.”
The key phrase in this offer is “current emissions baseline”. Earthlife Africa Jhb has been unable to determine what baseline the Government is referring to. Repeated enquires to Presidency and the Department of Environment have yet to provide any clarity on the matter. Yesterday, the South African Government held a press conference, but provided no further details on its offer.
In Government’s approved Long Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS) [1], two baseline scenarios were presented, Growth Without Constraints (GWC) and Current Development Plans (CDP). As the GWC is widely considered to be unrealistic, Earthlife Africa Jhb will make the assumption that CDP is the baseline, although it has no basis to do so.
The LTMS suggests that CDP will result in annual greenhouse gas emissions of around 800mt (carbon dioxide equivalent), a 34% reduction would result in an emissions peak of 528mt in 2020. Current emissions stand at 446mt per annum (2004 figures). However, the LTMS clearly states that scientific wisdom suggests that South Africa should peak in 2020 at 470mt. Further, the LTMS thinks that peaking at 470mt is possible. If this analysis is correct, then the South African Government would appear to be offering less than what the LTMS states.
However, this cannot be established, as the baseline is not known.
Earthlife Africa Jhb is also concerned with recent reports that South Africa will look upon this as a voluntary measure. Most unfortunately, the South African energy sector is littered with voluntary agreements that have not worked. In order for South Africa to cut its emissions, this must be made into binding legislation, as envisaged at the Government’s climate change conference earlier this year.
While the South African emissions reduction offer may appear to be a positive development, more detail is needed to see if it matches up what the scientists and the Government’s own research say is required. Therefore, Earthlife Africa Jhb requests the Government to:
1. Provide details on the baseline referred to in its offer.
2. To provide absolute emissions figures for 2020, 2025 and beyond. For example, South Africa is offering to peak its emissions at 525mt per annum in 2020.
3. To make binding legislation part of its offer.
The South African Government needs to make this information known immediately; for example, Eskom has stated that an national GHG emissions cap of 550mt would require it to produce less emissions than it does at the moment, thus making the current expansion of coal-fired generation illogical and financially risky.
For more information, please contact:
# Denmark
Ferrial Adam
Research Officer
Earthlife Africa Jhb
Email: feradam@gmail.com
Danish Cell: +45 5 269 5131
Website: www.earthlife.org.za
# South Africa
Tristen Taylor
Project Coordinator
Earthlife Africa Jhb
Tel: +27 11 339 3662
Fax: +27 11 339 3270
Cell: +27 84 250 2434
Email: tristen@earthlife.org.za
Website: www.earthlife.org.za
[1] The LTMS is Government’s approved research and plan on how to reduce South Africa’s emissions.
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